3 Regions Where October Temperatures Will Be Warmer Than Normal
Fall weather can be difficult to predict. Whether it’s unexpected drought conditions or a sudden early freeze, being a transition season means that practically anything can happen. But just because we’re moving closer and closer to winter and preparing for “sweater weather,” it doesn’t necessarily mean that it’ll get cold right away. In fact, some regions could see warmer-than-normal temperatures this October.
RELATED: 4 Regions Where Fall Foliage Will Peak This Month.
Most of the Eastern U.S. can expect warmer October weather.
Even if you notice the leaves beginning to change, that crisp autumn weather might not be kicking off as early as it usually does. In a recently posted climate outlook update, the National Weather Service (NWS) forecasted that October would be warmer than average in many areas.
While the agency says the first full month of fall is historically the hardest to predict, they expect ocean temperatures off of South America to shift into La Niña conditions, which historically promotes above-average temperatures.
Notably, the Eastern half of the U.S. could be broadly affected by these conditions. This includes the entire Eastern Seaboard from north to south, stretching all the way out beyond the Mississippi River.
According to the NWS temperature outlook map, Louisiana, Missouri, Arkansas, Iowa, northern Illinois, and southern Michigan have a 33 to 40 percent chance of warmer-than-usual weather.
Meanwhile, all states to the east of that line have a 40 to 50 percent chance of above-average temperatures. However, New England and the southern tip of Florida both stand out as the most likely places to see warmer weather with a 50 to 6o percent likelihood.
RELATED: 4 Regions Where Hurricane Season Will Be the Worst This Year.
The Southwest and Rockies are also expected to be warmer than usual.
While most of the Plains states and northern Midwest are expected to be average, things are a bit different to the south and west. Most of eastern Texas, eastern Colorado, central Wyoming, and western Montana have a 33 to 40 percent chance of warmer weather.
Temperatures are even more likely to spike heading west, with parts of Texas, eastern New Mexico, western Colorado, western Wyoming, southwestern Montana, and southern Idaho in the 40 to 50 percent tier.
However, the greatest chances of above-average temperatures will hit the Southwest. Western Texas, western New Mexico, most of Arizona, eastern Nevada, and the southeastern corner of California have a 50 to 6o percent probability of warmer weather.
RELATED: 34 States That Will Have Unusually Hot Falls This Year.
The Western U.S. could see higher temperatures.
The balmier than average temperatures will carry on through to the Pacific, too. According to the NWS outlook, California and Oregon are 40 to 50 percent more likely to see warmer weather. Meanwhile, northern Oregon and all of Washington have a 33 to 40 percent chance.
Even Alaska could see a spike in warmth, with both the northern and southern parts of the northernmost state listed as likely to be above average.
While it might be nice to have a few extra days before you need to get your light coats out of storage, there are some downsides to warmer falls. Lingering summer temperatures can increase the likelihood of wildfires, especially in areas in the West that are already susceptible, ABC News reports.
It can also mean a longer allergy season, which prolongs agony for those prone to hay fever. And it can even dampen the effect of those beautiful autumn colors everyone looks forward to, drastically reducing the overall vibrancy of fall foliage.