Despite what the drink menu at Starbucks says, we’re still a month out from the first official day of fall. However, Mother Nature seems to be just as eager as we are to throw on a cozy sweater and grab a PSL. The temperatures are cooling down, and climate patterns appear to be falling into their typical autumn routine (crisp morning air, we missed you!). Unfortunately, weather experts predict it won’t stay like this for long. While another summer heatwave isn’t on the horizon, meteorologists warn we could see an unprecedented amount of hurricanes between now and the end of September.
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The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is forecasting “an extremely active hurricane season that could rank among the busiest on record,” per a notice posted by the NOAA’s National Weather Service.
Hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 3, with peak season occurring around early-to-mid September. Thus far, five named storms have hit the Atlantic Basin, including Hurricane Beryl and Tropical Storm Debby, but meteorologists expect that number to quintuple.
In a typical year, 14 named storms will make landfall, seven of which turn into hurricanes. But now, the NOAA predicts that this season will bring as many as 24 named storms, and eight to 13 of those will escalate into hurricanes—with many of these potentially happening in mere weeks.
With peak storm season right around the corner, AccuWeather issued a stark advisory for “back-to-back tropical threats in the Atlantic Basin.” The team’s expert meteorologists forecast up to 10 hurricanes from Aug. 27, 2024, to Sept. 30, 2024.
“We could see a parade of storms developing during the month of September. There’s a possibility that we could see multiple tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic basin on the same day, similar to the frequency of storms that we’ve seen during other supercharged hurricane seasons like 2020,” said AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva.
“The statistical peak of the hurricane season is Sept. 10, and we expect the Atlantic basin to be incredibly active,” he added.
The NOAA’s Weather Service is urging the public to brush up on hurricane safety rules, especially those living along the Atlantic coast. “Prepare for threats like damaging winds, storm surge and inland flooding from heavy rainfall,” per the notice. Additionally, the NOAA advises having an evacuation plan in place.
“We’re continuing to see the climatological hallmarks of an active season,” said Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “Sea surface temperatures remain abnormally high, and La Niña is still expected to emerge during the hurricane season, so the time to prepare is now.”
