COVID experts have already predicted that the new XEC strain of the virus will become the dominant variant in the U.S. this winter. First spotted in Europe in June, XEC has now been detected in at least 25 states, according to CBS News, citing preliminary data obtained from the global virus database GISAID. However, the current rate of XEC is too low for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to begin tracking it. But new research may offer another way to predict XEC's trajectory.
A study published this week in Scientific Reports says, "COVID-19 case rates in the US wax and wane in wave-like patterns over time," specifically in six-month increments. The findings suggest that these six-month waves begin in the Eastern U.S., leading to "traveling epidemic waves."
RELATED: New COVID Strain Is "Taking Charge," Doctors Warn—What to Know About the XEC Variant.
"The COVID-19 winter waves are consistent with that of other respiratory viruses, but the existence of a repeated additional surge during the summer was unexpected,” senior study author Donald S. Burke, MD, dean emeritus of Pitt’s School of Public Health, said in a statement. "These waves start near the southern U.S. border in July and August, when the weather is hottest and the humidity is high—factors that usually tamp down the spread of respiratory viruses. We don’t have a good explanation for why COVID-19 rates should increase in both the warmest and coolest times of the year."
"Additionally, we identified oscillating patterns, meaning when cases are elevated in one region at a specific time of the year, they are low in another region and vice versa," Burke explained to Newsweek. "The most prominent oscillation is in the eastern US, oscillating between the north and south."
"We have also found that these patterns might not be confined to the US but could be part of a larger North American phenomenon," Burke added to Newsweek.
So, what does this mean for the months ahead?
As CNN reported, in mid-August, the U.S. saw its biggest summer COVID surge since July 2022. Going by the hypothesis of the recent study, that puts the U.S. on track to get hit with another wave in late January, which aligns with experts' predictions regarding the XEC variant.
In fact, the CDC estimates that the U.S. will see its next "peak weekly COVID-19 hospitalization rate" in mid-January.
"(XEC) appears to be, like many of the other Omicron variants we have seen recently, quite contagious (and) very easily spread, which is why it's picking up steam," William Schaffner, MD, professor of infectious diseases at Vanderbilt University Medical Center, told TODAY.com.
"It is rising at a fast rate right now (and) it's the fastest rising variant in a couple different countries in Europe," Andrew Pekosz, PhD, professor and vice chair of the Department of Molecular Microbiology and Immunology at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, added to TODAY.com.
RELATED: The Latest COVID Shots Are Here, But They're No Longer Free—Here's What to Know.
With this forecast on the horizon, experts are urging people to get vaccinated and assuring that, even though the current vaccines were formulated for different variants, they will still provide protection against a potential XEC wave.
Elizabeth Hudson, MD, regional chief of infectious diseases for Kaiser Permanente Southern California, explained to the Los Angeles Times that "there is some overlap, because these are all sub, sub, sub-grandchildren of the original Omicron. So there is still going to be some level of protection there."
"Although it’s new, there have been some early laboratory studies that would indicate that the updated vaccine will protect against severe disease caused by this variant,” Schaffner agreed when speaking with TODAY.com.
