A new study led by researchers at Stanford Medicine found that the United States could be at risk of measles becoming endemic again, as a current outbreak continues – 25 years after measles was declared eliminated from the country. In fact, a simulation found there could be as many as 51 million cases in the next 25 years, leading to potentially thousands of deaths.
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The study is timely, as a measles outbreak is sweeping through the United States now, primarily in Texas. Just this week, the Texas Department of State Health Services confirmed another 22 cases of measles, bringing the total to 646 since late January. A total of 64% of patients have been hospitalized and two school-aged children passed away.
The CDC has confirmed measles cases in 29 other U.S. jurisdictions beyond Texas in 2025.
Measles was declared "eliminated" in the United States in the year 2000 by the World Health Organization (WHO) due to the prevalence of vaccinations. However, the U.S. was still at risk of the virus being reintroduced from other countries and that has since happened. Views on vaccinations are evolving, per public polling, and that has increased the odds of measles becoming endemic over the next 25 years, per the Stanford research.
The last major measles outbreak in the U.S. was from 1989 to 1991 with more than 50,000 confirmed cases and greater than 160 deaths, per the CDC.
According to the CDC, the following people are protected from measles' outbreaks:
- You received two doses of the measles vaccine, and you are a school-aged child (grades K-12) or an adult
- You received one dose of the measles vaccine, and you are a preschool-aged child or an adult
- You had measles once before in your life (confirmed by lab)
- You are immune to measles (confirmed by lab)
- You were born before 1957 (nearly everyone had been affected in that age bracket)
Measles was once a common childhood illness and it is particularly dangerous for those under 5 years old, per Mayo Clinic. Symptoms of measles include spots, a rash, a high fever, cough, and a runny nose, per the CDC, but it can take up to 1 to 2 weeks for symptoms to emerge.
The Stanford study also references rubella, poliomyelitis, and diphtheria likely being on the rise due to evolving views on vaccinations, however their models estimated the measles cases far surpassing the others combined.
