The Climate Prediction Center just updated its outlook for ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation), with a 60% chance of a “weak and short” La Niña from November to March. While last winter was an El Niño winter, La Niñas are not uncommon. “We actually, believe it or not, had three back-to-back La Niñas from 2020 to 2023," says Michelle L’Heureux, a meteorologist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s El Niño-Southern Oscillation team. “We had a lot of La Niñas.” So what exactly does this prediction mean? Here’s how a La Niña winter could impact you.
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What Exactly Is La Niña?
ShutterstockEl Niño and La Niña are complex weather patterns linked to ocean temperatures. “La Niña is the cool phase of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a pattern of alternating warmer (El Niño) and cooler surface waters in the tropical Pacific,” Emily Becker, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Miami, says via NOAA’s latest La Niña/El Niño blog. “Rising warm air in the tropics is what drives global atmospheric circulation, and therefore the jet stream, storm tracks, and resulting temperature and rain patterns.”
What Does This Mean For Me?
ShutterstockPeople in the United States should expect a much wetter winter for the northern tier of the country, especially the Northeast, Pacific Northwest, and Midwest. Meanwhile the South should expect a drier winter. “Weather in the Pacific Northwest during both La Niñas and El Niños is generally warmer than it used to be historically because of climate change," Oregon state climatologist Larry O’Neill tells The Oregonian. “This means that our temperatures during La Niña are increasingly not following the historical tendency for cooler than normal winters."
Cooling Temperatures
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A La Niña is declared when ocean water is 0.9 degree Fahrenheit below average for three straight months. "While this may sound like a small change in temperature, it can cause significant changes in the weather patterns around the globe," AccuWeather meteorologist Brian Lada tells USA Today.
La Niña and Hurricane Season
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How will La Niña impact hurricane season? "Broadly speaking, even if we don't officially get to La Niña, the likely cool neutral ENSO combined with the extremely warm Caribbean could lead to a busy late season in the Caribbean," Dr. Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane expert with Colorado State University, tells Fox Weather.
