Generally, the word "drought" is synonymous with summer, when warmer temperatures and little precipitation are to be expected. But due to autumn’s lack of rainfall this season, meteorologists warn that we might be headed towards a "snow drought" this winter. The unfavorable shift in weather could mean fewer snowball fights, naked mountain tops, fake snow at ski resorts, and potentially, no white Christmas.
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In many regions nationwide, fleece jackets and boots are collecting dust in storage. The cold weather delay may feel unnatural in November, especially for folks along the East Coast, but it isn’t totally out of left field.
In September, experts forecasted a summer-like fall and winter with "slightly above" and "above" average temperatures in nearly all 50 states. They also said that the season’s first major cold front would likely not happen until late December, with most snowstorms occurring after the winter holidays. So far, this has seemed to be the case.
According to The Weather Channel, snowfall along the Northeast I-95 corridor (stretching from Boston to Washington D.C.) has been "pathetic" in recent years. Between 2022 and 2023, the region accumulated more than 50 percent less snow than seasonal averages. Boston is arguably facing the worst snow drought, having only collected 22.2 inches of snow the last two winters. Their two-season average is 98.4 inches.
Meanwhile, New York has failed to reach double digits. They saw 9.8 inches of snowfall, compared to their two-season average of 59.6 inches. Philadelphia’s mild winters have yielded similar results. They got 11.5 inches of snow from 2022 to 2023 versus the typical average of 46.2 inches. Washington D.C. typically accumulates 27.4 inches of snow within two years, but the current average stands at 8.4 inches.
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A snow drought can have more serious consequences than a meteorological drought, says the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Office of Science. That’s because you often don’t know the severity of a snow drought until spring when snowpacks begin to melt and make their way downstream. However, if a region gets minimal snow, there’s not as much spring runoff. Consequently, surrounding waterfalls and rivers remain dry and barren.
"The lack of snow can change both the amount and the timing of the runoff. The situation gets even worse when there are multiple years of low snowfall, as the snowpack further decreases each year," explains the DOE’s Office of Science.
According to the scientific organization, a snow drought can occur for three reasons: "When temperatures are exceptionally warm, precipitation can fall as rain instead of snow. When overall precipitation is low, there’s less rain and snow. Lastly, when temperatures are warm and precipitation is low, areas end up with less precipitation and a smaller proportion of it as snow."
Unfortunately, it looks like we won’t be getting out of a snow drought anytime soon. Based on numerous climate models, researchers forecast that most regions will succumb to snow drought in the future. Specifically, "all snowy regions of the Northern Hemisphere and the Andes" are predicted to have even less snowfall than they do now.
