Doctors Warn Liver Cancer Cases Could Double by 2050—But You Can Reduce Your Risk

In 2024, the Obesity Medicine Association declared obesity “a public health crisis.” The World Health Organization (WHO) similarly called obesity “one of today’s most blatantly visible—yet most neglected—public health problems.” Obesity is one of the biggest comorbidities for chronic health conditions, including liver cancer. And with cases of liver cancer on the rise, doctors say now is the time to take charge. Learn how to reduce your risk below.

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The rise of liver cancer is a “looming crisis,” health experts warn.

The global incidence of liver cancer cases is projected to double by 2050, according to a new analysis published in the journal The Lancet. Liver cancer is the sixth most common cancer in the world, with a majority of cases occurring in China, America, Japan, and India. It’s the fifth and ninth most common cancer in men and women, respectively, per the World Cancer Research Fund.

Data shows there were 870,000 cases of liver cancer in 2022. At this rate, that number is expected to skyrocket to more than 1.5 million in 2050. It’s an “alarming projection,” wrote the authors.

“Liver cancer is a growing health issue around the world. It is one of the most challenging cancers to treat, with five-year survival rates ranging from approximately five percent to 30 percent. We risk seeing close to a doubling of cases and deaths from liver cancer over the next quarter of a century without urgent action to reverse this trend,” Jian Zhou, PhD, lead author and University of China professor, told The Guardian.

The good news is that researchers have identified the three leading causes of liver cancer. Through health screenings and target management, they believe at least 60 percent of cases could be prevented.

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Viral infections, obesity, and increased alcohol intake are the leading causes of liver cancer.

A majority of liver cancer cases can be traced back to viral infections, such as hepatitis B (HBV) and hepatitis C (Hep C). While both hepatitis viruses attack the liver, they differ in transmission, severity, and treatment. Notably, HBV is preventable with a vaccine, while Hep C is not.

In 2022, 39 percent of liver cancers were attributed to HBV, and Hep C accounted for 29.1 percent of cases. Both of these statistics are projected to drop between 2.1 and 3.2 percent by 2025.

But experts are predicting a higher prevalence of liver cases linked to metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic disease (MASLD) and alcohol consumption.

“MASLD is emerging as a major contributor to the epidemiology of liver cancer, driven by rising obesity and diabetes and ageing populations. About a third of adults worldwide have MASLD,” wrote the authors.

According to Cleveland Clinic, MASLD manifests when there is a buildup of fat in the liver. Obesity, diabetes, high cholesterol, and high blood pressure are all MASLD contributors.

Metabolic dysfunction accounted for eight percent of liver cancer cases in 2022. Per the analysis, a 10.8 percent increase is projected for 2025. Meanwhile, alcohol-caused liver cancer is said to jump from 18.8 percent to 21.1 percent in 2050.

“Liver cancer was once thought to occur mainly in patients with viral hepatitis or alcohol-related liver disease. However, today, rising rates of obesity are an increasing risk factor for liver cancer, primarily due to the increase in cases of excess fat around the liver,” Hashem B. El-Serag, MD, a professor at Baylor College of Medicine, told The Guardian.

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How to reduce your risk:

In a positive outlook, experts say 17.3 million new cases of liver cancer could be prevented “through targeted management of modifiable risk factors,” including reduced alcohol consumption and weight control. This could end up “saving around 15.1 million lives over the next 25 years.”

“Compared with other cancers, liver cancer is very hard to treat but has more distinct risk factors, which help define specific prevention strategies. With joint and continuous efforts, we believe many liver cancer cases can be prevented, and both the survival and quality of patients with liver cancer will be considerably improved,” added coauthor Valérie Paradis of Beaujon hospital in France.