Ahead of hurricane season, you always want to be as prepared as possible, especially if you live in regions of the U.S. where these storms are prevalent. Thankfully, we normally have some predictions about the number of hurricanes we can expect—and 2024 is no exception. However, it does stand out. According to the latest data, forecasters anticipate an "extremely active" season with 23 named storms, including 11 hurricanes.
RELATED: Meteorologist Says Hurricanes Will "Grow Stronger and More Easily" This Season.
The staggering number of storms anticipated this Atlantic hurricane season (spanning from June 1 to Nov. 30) was first announced by researchers at Colorado State University (CSU) in early April. As of a June 11 press release, CSU researchers stand by this prediction.
Of the 11 potential hurricanes, researchers note that five are likely to reach major hurricane strength (Category 3, 4, or 5). "This could mean sustained winds of 111 mph or greater," the press release states.
Late last month, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) also predicted "above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin."
"The updated June forecast takes newly available data into consideration as the season commences," the latest CSU press release reads. "Uncertainty remains in the forecast, however, as the atmosphere-ocean system can sometimes change dramatically between this month and the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from August–October."
According to CSU, between 1991 and 2020, the average number of named storms each season has been roughly 14, with seven total hurricanes and three major hurricanes. The 2024 prediction of 11 hurricanes is "the highest predicted number of hurricanes that CSU has ever issued in a June outlook," researchers wrote.
Since CSU started issuing June forecasts in 1984, the previous record-high prediction was 10 hurricanes in 2010 (with 12 observed) and 10 hurricanes in 2022 (when eight were observed).
RELATED: 2024 Hurricane Season May Be 170% More Active—The States Most at Risk.
The team at CSU attributes the active season to warmer waters in the Atlantic Ocean.
"A very warm Atlantic favors an above-average season because warm ocean water serves as a fuel source for hurricanes," the release reads. "In addition, a warm Atlantic leads to lower atmospheric pressure and a more unstable atmosphere. Both conditions favor hurricanes."
However, hurricane season is getting a late start. As of yesterday, there have been no named storms. But because Caribbean water temperatures are already at levels we see in September, the "ocean is certainly primed for a busy hurricane season," National Hurricane Center (NHC) Director Michael Brennan told Fox Weather in an interview last week. It just needs the atmosphere "to go along and cooperate," Brennan added.
According to CSU, the atmosphere will play ball soon. El Niño conditions are weakening in the tropical Pacific and are expected to shift to La Niña conditions by the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. With La Niña, upper-level westerly winds are decreased, which means less vertical wind shear, resulting in higher chances of hurricanes forming and being intense.
"Given the combined hurricane-favorable signals of an extremely warm Atlantic and the absence of El Niño, the forecast team has higher-than-normal confidence in this outlook that the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season will be very active," the release states.
To make its predictions, CSU uses a statistical model and models that account for decades of historical hurricane seasons. However, researchers note that the forecast intends to "provide the best estimate" instead of "an exact measure." The university will release updated forecasts on July 9 and Aug. 6.
