5 Regions With the Highest Risk of Snow This Thanksgiving

The weather on and around Thanksgiving can have huge implications—especially if you live somewhere where November snowfall is the norm. Even though getting a dusting in time for the big feast can feel festive, too much of it could snarl air travel and complicate driving conditions. And while we’re still too far out to know if any places are due for a storm for sure, some data could help pinpoint which places are most likely to see some of the white stuff in the coming days. Read on for the regions with the highest risk of snow this Thanksgiving, according to forecasts.

RELATED: 4 U.S. Regions Most Likely to Experience the Harshest Winter This Year.

1. The Northern Rockies

By now, you’ve probably heard your local meteorologist talking about La Niña and its effects on the weather in your area. The anomaly occurs when surface temperatures of the Pacific Ocean off the coast of South America dip below average, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

This ultimately causes the jet stream to dip south, which typically creates warmer and drier winters in the south and colder, wetter weather in parts of the north.

With La Niña conditions currently in place, parts of the Rockies and Upper Midwest are already experiencing some of the effects (as evidenced by an Arctic blast that brought snow to the region earlier this month). According to forecast maps from NOAA, the Rockies are set to see both colder temperatures and higher precipitation than average, putting the region at higher risk for snow overall.

But in the latest six-to-10-day outlook released on Nov. 20 by the National Weather Service (NWS), Montana, northern Idaho, and Wyoming are all shown to have both a “below” to “likely below” average temperature probability and a “likely above” likelihood of precipitation.

2. The Plains States

Just due east, the Plains could also see an atypically bitter fall (and early winter) produce snow ahead of the holiday. North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Kansas are all included in the “likely above” to “above” zones for precipitation probability, while all four are also squarely covered by “likely below” to “below” temperatures.

RELATED: 4 U.S. Regions Most at Risk of “Deadly Flooding,” New Data Shows.

3. The Upper Midwest

As we’ve already seen, winter is in full effect before fall is even over in the northern central U.S. According to the NOAA forecast, the entire region is at a higher probability of below-average temperatures, especially in Iowa, Missouri, southern Wisconsin, and western Illinois. Combined with an “above” to “likely above” probability of precipitation over the coming week, snow is far from out of the question.

According to the most recent NWS 2-week hazard outlook forecast released on Nov. 20, heavy snow does appear more likely in some parts of the region. A “slight risk” of the white stuff is expected across Minnesota, Wisconsin, northern Illinois (including Chicago), and Michigan, with much of the Upper Peninsula rated as a “moderate risk” for heavy snow.

4. The West Mid-Atlantic

Keeping up with the contiguous strip of cooler temperatures meeting a higher likelihood of precipitation is the northern edge of the Southeast and eastern fringe of the Midwest (pardon the geographical linguistic gymnastics there). While most of the region is likely to feel chillier weather, western Pennsylvania, parts of West Virginia, northwestern Ohio, western Virginia, and western North Carolina all have a “likely” designation for a higher probability of precipitation.

On the other hand, the NWS 2-week weather forecast shows a “slight risk” of heavy snow for most of Ohio, and a “moderate risk” along the Lake Erie shoreline.

5. The Northeast

The forecast maps don’t show New England or much of the Northeast with the likelihood of higher precipitation or lower temperatures. However, the 2-week hazard outlook does show most of Pennsylvania, Upstate New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine at a “slight risk” for heavy snow. Parts of western Pennsylvania and western New York are also at a moderate risk for heavy lake effect snow.