4 Regions Where Heating Bills Will Rise the Most This Winter

There’s a certain point every fall where the vibe shifts from mild, cozy days to that first hard freeze that reminds us winter is around the corner. And depending on where you live, this also means booting your home heating system back up for the season. Unfortunately, this year could bring a one-two punch combination of colder-than-average temperatures and increased energy prices. But which places will suffer the most? Read on for the regions where heating bills are expected to rise the most this year.

RELATED: 4 Regions Most Likely to See Their First Snowfall in November.

1. The Northeast

States in the higher latitudes are no strangers to cold winters, but this year could add insult to injury when it comes to expenses. With La Niña conditions currently forming in the Pacific, it’s expected that the colder, wetter winter weather it typically brings to the Northeast will follow, according to the National Weather Service (NWS).

But while the mercury might be dropping, the cost of heating your home could also be going up. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), prices for certain fuels and energy sources are expected to rise, with some areas at risk of paying significantly more. The worst hit will be homes heated with electricity, while those with natural gas might see a little respite depending on how chilly the weather gets.

The EIA estimates that homes that rely on electricity for heat could see a 3 percent increase if temperatures were in the average range. But they could spike as much as 8 percent if it’s just 10 percent colder this winter, and customers will only pay the same if it’s about 10 percent warmer than the average. In the event of an atypically colder winter, even homes in the region fueled by natural gas could see a 6 percent increase in their bills.

Some companies are already warning in advance. Last month, National Grid warned homeowners in upstate New York that their bills could jump 10 percent this winter due to supply shortages, with an average rise of $66 between November and March, Spectrum News reports.

2. The Midwest

While typically prepared for any kind of harsh winter, the central northern states might still be shocked by the increase in their utility expenses in the coming months. In a recent analysis, the National Energy Assistance Directors Association (NEADA) estimated that the region would see average costs rise 14.4 percent from $820 to $938, the Dayton Daily News reports. Those burning natural gas in the region would see an even steeper increase, jumping 16.4 percent from an average of $600 to $698—especially as experts warn colder weather is on the horizon.

“We use NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) estimates for temperature projections,” Mark Wolfe, executive director of the NEADA, told the Dayton Daily News. “We’re expecting it to be colder [in] the Midwest, so it’s not just that the cost of natural gas has gone up [and] the cost of electricity is going up, it’s also you’re going to be using more of it.”

Other forms of heating could get particularly pricey, too. According to the EIA projection, homes using electrical heating in the Midwest could see a 4 percent increase, while a colder winter could see costs spike 9 percent. And in the event of a chillier-than-average winter, propane-heated homes would pay 6 percent more.

RELATED: 9 Mistakes You’re Making That Are Increasing Your Heating Bill.

3. The West

Those who live in the Rockies on towards the Pacific might want to prepare to pay more for heating this winter, too. The EIA estimates that while there likely will only be decreases for homes using natural gas or propane, homes in the West using electricity would see a spike of 3 percent for an average winter and a jump of 7 percent for a colder season. This could be particularly painful in states like Washington and Oregon, where data shows more than 50 percent of homes are heated using electrical power.

4. The South

The southern states may not have consistently frigid winters like their northern counterparts, but home heating is still something that plays an important part during the colder months. While natural gas and propane-heated homes will likely see decreases, electrically heated homes are expected to jump 4 percent for an average winter or 8 percent for a chillier winter, per the EIA.

Unfortunately, most homes in the South and Southeast could be in for some sticker shock: Over 50 percent of homes in those regions rely on electricity to warm their homes. However, the same La Niña effects that bring colder weather to the north also typically bring more mild, drier weather to the south, meaning there may be less reason to crank up the thermostat this year.