Hurricane season doesn’t officially start until June 1, but meteorologists are already teeing up for "near to above the historical average number of named storms, hurricanes, [and] major hurricanes," per AccuWeather. The ferocious lineup could bring flooding, power outages, catastrophic damage, and 130 miles-per-hour winds. September marks peak hurricane season, but water temperature and dry air could spark a powerful onset of storms this summer.
"A rapid intensification of storms will likely be a major story yet again this year as sea-surface temperatures and ocean heat content (OHC) across most of the basin are forecast to be well above average," said AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva in a report.
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The OHC measures water temperature as well as temperature-depth (meaning how deep the temperature penetrates the water’s surface). As the weather forecast organization explains: "A deep pool of warm water provides much more fuel for hurricanes than a shallow layer of warmth near the ocean's surface." Above-average water temperatures are already on record, including in parts of the Gulf and Caribbean, setting the stage for "explosive" storm development.
Based on current data and weather patterns, "AccuWeather is forecasting near to above the historical average number of named storms, hurricanes, major hurricanes, accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) and direct impacts to the United States," said DaSilva.
ACE measures "the combined intensity of every tropical system throughout the season." Storms that burn out quickly have a low ACE score, while strong, destructive hurricanes produce a high ACE score. AccuWeather meteorologists have given the 2025 hurricane season an ACE score of 125 to 175, which is similar to last year’s. (For context, the 30-year historical average ACE score is 123.)
So, what does that mean? By the numbers, AccuWeather is predicting between 13 and 18 named storms in 2025. Of these, seven to 10 will develop into hurricanes, ranging in strength and destruction. However, three to five hurricanes will advance to Category 3 or higher
Up to six storms could make landfall in the U.S. "Similar to last year, northern and eastern portions of the Gulf Coast and the Carolinas are at a higher-than-average risk of direct impacts this season," DaSilva explained. "Atlantic Canada and the northeastern Caribbean are also at an increased risk of direct impacts."
There’s also a 20 percent chance that we see more than 18 named stories this year, he added.
A factor that could spur this movement is an El Niño or La Niña, the latter of which is known to fuel hurricane activity. The good news is La Niña conditions haven’t taken off (yet), making room for "a neutral phase," in which we don’t experience El Niño or La Niña.
"So-called neutral years can also be quite active in the Atlantic, so unless we see a big warm-up toward El Niño over the next four or five months, the Pacific shouldn’t be a major deterrent this season," Miami-based hurricane expert Michael Lowry told The Washington Post.
Should La Niña conditions pick up, the U.S. could be in store for "an active end to the season," warned DaSilva.
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The National Hurricane Center (NHC), operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), has released its tropical cyclone names for the 2025 season, including:
- Andrea
- Barry
- Chantal
- Dexter
- Erin
- Fernand
- Gabrielle
- Humberto
- Imelda
- Jerry
- Karen
- Lorenzo
- Melissa
- Nestor
- Olga
- Pablo
- Rebekah
- Sebastien
- Tanya
- Van
- Wendy
According to Lowry, hurricane season is "a marathon, not a sprint."
"Emergency managers and disaster planners don’t alter their plans based on the seasonal outlooks, and neither should you or your family," he said. "Prepare this year as you would any other year. It only takes one bad hurricane to make it a bad season where you live."
