It appears Mother Nature didn’t get the memo that yesterday was the official first day of fall. The leaves are changing, and PSLs are now part of our weekly coffee rotation, but our puffer vests and fuzzy sweaters have yet to see the light of day. So, what gives? Unfortunately, it looks as though we are in for a “second summer” this fall.
AccuWeather previously reported that “a warm autumn is expected for nearly all of the country this year.” And now that the autumnal equinox has come and gone, meteorologists are standing firm in their predictions, noting that “the transition from summer to fall-like weather” is happening at an atypical pace.
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The fall forecast is calling for “slightly above” and “above” average temperatures in nearly all 50 states, according to a new outlook released by The Weather Company and Atmospheric G2. Meteorologists warn that these weather patterns could linger through Thanksgiving and Christmas. In fact, most regions won’t experience a cold-front until late December—but even then, experts say temperatures probably won’t dip below average.
"It is rather difficult these days to forecast any sort of widespread below-normal temperatures in a seasonal forecast," Atmospheric G2 vice president of meteorology Todd Crawford said in the report. "It still seems like years since we've had a month cooler than [the] 30-year average.”
According to the report, the month of October will bring “warmer-than-usual” temperatures for most of the Great Lakes, Southwest, Mississippi Valley, and Great Plains, as well as all of New England. In other words, you probably won’t be reaching for your cable-knit cardigan come spooky season. That is unless you live in the Pacific Northwest or Southeast, where the weather may be more cooperable.
And the news only gets worse from there. The Weather Company and Atmospheric G2 estimates that temperatures will be warmer than standard across the whole country, apart from the Southeast, in November. The Southwest, Northern Plains, and Midwest are predicted to get the worst of it.
In an unlikely turn of events, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, and parts of Alabama might be privy to “slightly below” average temperatures. As digits dip, tropical storms should dissipate, making way for the region’s “dry season.”
In December, Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana, and some parts of Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, and Wisconsin should have “slightly below” average temperatures. The Great Lakes will be frigid with “below” average weather. Everywhere else will hover around “slightly above” and “above” average temperatures.
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This summer brought heat domes and record-breaking high temperatures, so a milder fall and winter isn’t unexpected, according to some meteorologists.
“Fall is going to feel more like an extended summer for millions of Americans this year,” AccuWeather expert Paul Pastelok said in a statement, perUSA Today. “Much of the country will experience a delayed transition to cooler temperatures this year, following a summer with intense heat."
At the very least, weather experts hope that with this winter being a La Niña, accompanying temperatures and conditions will help smother the heat.