What started as a summer COVID-19 wave is now morphing into a fall surge, and Dr. Michael Osterholm, one of America’s top epidemiologists, is sounding the alarm. In the latest episode of his Osterholm Update podcast with Chris Dall, he warned that this virus isn’t bound by seasons and can strike whenever immunity wanes and new variants emerge. With COVID-19 levels dangerously high in 47 states and hospitalizations rising, Osterholm has urgent advice for anyone wanting to stay safe this fall. From the latest on testing and vaccine recommendations to the role of wastewater data, Osterholm breaks down what you need to know—and why complacency could be costly. If you think COVID-19 is behind us, think again. Here’s everything Osterholm had to say about the ongoing surge and how to protect yourself.
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On the Summer and Fall COVID-19 Wave
iStockOsterholm says “this summer 2024 wave looks like it may become the … fall 2024 wave, confirming that this virus is not seasonal in any way other than the fact that it occurs in every season. I was actually very pleased to see the CDC finally acknowledged that COVID-19 is not seasonal like influenza but that it can happen at any season based on the combination of emerging variants and waning immunity,” said Osterholm.
On Public Perception and Testing
23 States With "Very High" COVID Levels, New CDC Data ShowsHelen Sushitskaya / Shutterstock“We’re in a really interesting time where people are viewing this as much more of a common cold type of virus and they aren’t testing in some cases because they can’t access tests but in many cases because they’re choosing not to. But as we’ve talked about with H5N1, remember the absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. The virus is out there and it doesn’t seem to be going away anytime soon,” said Osterholm.
On Current COVID-19 Levels and Hospitalizations
Shutterstock“Looking at state level data, 47 states and the District of Columbia have either high or very high levels. Note this is up from only 43 states as opposed to the 47 states in our last episode. Sixteen states and the District of Columbia are high, and 31 states including Minnesota are very high. Michigan is the only state with low levels,” said Osterholm.
“There are just over 5,350 Americans reported to be hospitalized with COVID. This is down from 5,430, and around 12% of those hospitalized are in the ICU. This is a slight decrease in hospitalizations from the previous week, which could be a positive sign,” said Osterholm.
On Wastewater Data as a Leading Indicator
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“If we look at the wastewater data, it continues to show levels that are considered very high and are unfortunately still increasing in all regions except the west, with wastewater concentrations being a leading indicator warning us as to what is to come. I’d expect we’ll continue to see increasing activity for at least a couple more weeks if not longer,” said Osterholm.
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On COVID-19 Deaths and Risk Factors
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“Now looking at deaths, and as we’ve talked about, they’re a lagging indicator. They’re unfortunately increasing. Last week was the third straight week with more than a thousand deaths, with 1,262 Americans losing their lives to COVID, or about 180 each day,” said Osterholm.
“Today, 54% of all the deaths in this country are in those 75 years of age and older. If you add in the 65 to 74-year-old age group, now cumulatively that comes to 76% of all deaths,” said Osterholm.
On the Need for Vaccination and Respiratory Protection
Shutterstock“So for those of us who are older, who may have some immune-compromising conditions, we still need to make sure that we’re fully vaccinated and where we are potentially exposed to others, we should surely consider using respiratory protection,” said Osterholm.
“I refuse to accept 1,200 deaths a week is okay. I don’t believe that’s the case at all,” said Osterholm.
On School-Aged Children and COVID-19 Risks
Shutterstock“Last week nearly 5% of those zero to 11-year-olds who went to the emergency department either went because of COVID or tested positive for COVID while they were there. This is the highest percentage this age group has seen throughout the entire pandemic,” said Osterholm.
“If it were me, and I’ll talk more about this in a moment, I’d want to make sure my kids had one dose of vaccine before getting into school,” said Osterholm.
