16 States Are Already in a Recession—Here's Where
But more than half of all states also saw economic growth during the same period.
Rising inflation, headline-grabbing bank failures, climbing interest rates, and other economic woes have dominated the economic conversation in the U.S. in recent years. The uncertainty has even led many to prepare for a recession, which some experts fear could come at any time. Currently, data shows there's been continued economic growth on a national level, which means the U.S. has yet to enter a dreaded fiscal backslide, according to personal finance website NerdWallet. But things still look different on a more granular level, with new research finding that 16 states are already in a recession. Read on to find out which places recently saw their economies shrink and what could be coming next.
New data shows more than a dozen states were in a recession over the past three months.
Economic conditions typically vary from place to place. But according to the latest findings from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, 16 states were found to be in recession based on data from July through October, Business Insider reports. The tally is an increase from the previous report between June and September, in which only nine states saw their economies retract.
Of the more than dozen states that fall into the recession category, Arkansas saw the smallest contraction during the period with a 0.08 percent decrease. It's followed by Alabama with a 0.21 percent contraction and New York with a 0.22 percent decrease.
Arizona saw a contraction of 0.3 percent, while Massachusetts and Maine saw nearly identical economic decreases of 0.33 and 0.34, respectively. Meanwhile, Alaska saw its economic activity decrease by 0.37 percent, Oklahoma saw a contraction of 0.41 percent, and Wisconsin saw a 0.44 percent decrease over the summer months.
Some states fared even worse, including a handful with contractions above one percent.
Other states saw even worse recessions. New Jersey posted a 0.59 percent economic decrease, while Illinois saw a 0.79 percent decline of its own.
The next worst was Iowa, which saw a 0.81 economic decrease. It's followed by Missouri and its 0.82 percent contraction, per the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's data.
Some states even saw their figures jump above the one percent mark. In Montana, the summer months saw a 1.31 percent economic contraction. Michigan posted a 1.37 percent decline. But the most hard-hit state was West Virginia, which data shows had an economic contraction of 2.72 percent over the period in question.
Still, 33 states saw their economies grow during the same period.
But while the data might be jarring, there was still some good news in the latest findings. Data shows that 33 states saw economic growth over the same period, while another remained flat overall.
Some of the best-performing states include Florida and Georgia, which saw economic increases of 0.65 percent and 0.66 percent, respectively. South Dakota posted 0.7 percent growth during the same period, while Louisiana saw 0.72 percent, Pennsylvania saw a 0.73 percent bump, Idaho saw three-quarters of a percent growth, and Connecticut's economy grew by 0.77 percent over the summer.
Nevada, Texas, and Wyoming also saw growth, with increases of more than 0.8 percent each. But the top states that broke one percent were North Dakota with 1.11 percent growth, Maryland with 1.18 percent, and South Carolina with 1.22 percent, per the latest data.
Experts are still debating whether a national recession is possible—but the latest data is relatively optimistic.
Even though a third of all states saw their economies shrink last year, the overall data can be interpreted as relatively rosy on the national level, thanks to the number of states with growing economies. This is especially true since seven of the 10 states with the highest GDPs overall saw their economies grow last year, including California, Texas, and Florida, Business Insider reports.
According to a note posted by DataTrek Research cofounders Nicholas Colas and Jessica Rabe on Nov. 26, this growth "should be enough to keep the U.S. economy as a whole from falling into recession this quarter," per Business Insider. They added that the data trends through the rest of the year would likely be a significant indicator of the state of the national economy heading into the new year.
But even as the debate over what lies ahead rages on, the findings also come amid some declining fears of a looming national contraction. Last year, Bloomberg forecasted the chances of the U.S. entering a recession by October of this year were 100 percent—which hasn't materialized. And others say a slight decrease could come that may stop short of a proper economic contraction.
"We are not going to see [a] recession, that is not in my outlook," Raphael Bostic, president of the Atlanta Federal Reserve, said in an interview with CNBC on Oct. 20. "We are going to see a slowdown, and inflation will get down to 2 percent."