Here's When Your State Will Have to Shut Down Again, New Research Shows

An updated model from the University of Washington predicts these 22 states will need further lockdowns.

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While many regions in the United States once appeared poised to curb the coronavirus, new COVID-19 cases are on the rise across the country, with many states once again being forced to take strict measures to keep further outbreaks at bay. Texas and Florida closed their bars, California closed most indoor activities, and Rhode Island even started rolling back on the size of gatherings allowed. However, even with these measures in place, the projection-based model from the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) suggests that many states will need to shut down again in the near future.

"We're seeing a rollercoaster in the United States," IHME Director Christopher Murray said in a statement. "It appears that people are wearing masks and socially distancing more frequently as infections increase, then after a while as infections drop, people let their guard down and stop taking these measures to protect themselves and others—which, of course, leads to more infections. And the potentially deadly cycle starts over again."

With infections rising the way they are, the IMHE has identified 22 states as candidates for further lockdowns in the fall. The model assumes that states will have to close non-essential businesses and reinstate stay-at-home orders once the daily death rate reaches 8 per 1 million residents. That threshold is based on data regarding when states imposed their first mandates in March and April, and assumes that many states will have to reimpose similar mandates. Based on that metric, read on to see if your state is one of the 22 that may have to shut down again in the coming months. And for more insight into which areas are in harm's way, check out Here's How Much COVID Cases Are Rising in Every State.

1
Alabama

The skyline of downtown Birmingham, Alabama at sunset.
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November

And for more insight into the virus' spread, Here's What Dr. Fauci Has to Say About These 11 States' Handling of COVID.

2
Arizona

phoenix arizona
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3
Arkansas

little rock arkansas
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4
California

downtown los angeles skyline
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5
Colorado

skyline of denver colorado
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October

And if you want to know where coronavirus is surging, These Two States Are Becoming the Worst COVID Hotspots in the U.S.

6
Florida

orlando florida skyline
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7
Georgia

Georgia
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8
Iowa

Iowa
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9
Kansas

Wichita, Kansas, USA downtown skyline at dusk.
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10
Louisiana

new orleans louisiana skyline
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11
Mississippi

The downtown skyline of Jackson, Mississippi with the state house in the foreground
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12
Missouri

St. Louis, Missouri
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13
Nevada

las vegas strip in nevada
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14
New Mexico

santa fe new mexico skyline
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15
North Carolina

Downtown Raleigh, North Carolina, USA Drone Skyline Aerial
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16
Oklahoma

tulsa oklahoma skyline
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17
Oregon

Portland OR view
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18
South Carolina

myrtle beach south carolina
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19
Texas

Houston Texas skyline
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September

20
Utah

salt lake city utah from above
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21
Washington

olympia washington
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22
Wisconsin

madison wisconsin
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And if you want to protect yourself, Dr. Fauci Wants You to Avoid Doing These 9 Things Right Now.

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