COVID-19 Will Be Surging Everywhere But Here in August, Researchers Say

A new study shows that one region is less at risk of coronavirus this summer.

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Across the country, coronavirus cases are continuing to rise as some states follow through with reopening plans and others press pause or return to lockdown. But while COVID-19 rates are spiking more in the South and parts of the West, one region in particular might see a reprieve from coronavirus come August: New England. States in this northeastern area, including Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Connecticut, and Rhode Island are currently at the lowest risk, but that doesn't mean residents and visitors shouldn't still be careful.

In a new COVID-19 study by PolicyLab at the Children's Hospital of Philadelphia, researchers analyzed data on coronavirus cases in 519 counties that represent 71 percent of the national population. With this information, they projected which states would be surging in the next month. Though Florida, Texas, and Arizona are currently three of the worst states in terms of hospitalizations and deaths, the forecast is looking bleak for other places too. Nevada, California, Missouri, Georgia, and South Carolina are critical ones to watch as they're expected to climb in cases.

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The good news is that New England has managed to contain the coronavirus, with Vermont being the second safest state, behind Hawaii. However, they should be cautious as the coronavirus has been reportedly moving up the East Coast along I-95, from the Carolinas north through Virginia and Delaware to major cities like Baltimore and Philadelphia. If it continues along that route, then Massachusetts and the other New England states could be next.

waterfront town with a harbor and boats at sunset
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Another important risk factor is vacation destinations. Popular getaways like Rehoboth, Virginia Beach, and Myrtle Beach have seen a sharp increase in cases as more people escaped cabin fever and traveled to the ocean for some sunshine. It wouldn't be too surprising if coastal areas like Cape Cod follow the same pattern. While this specific situation hasn't been forecast, it's still worth exercising caution and postponing your summer trip. And for more information on which states to avoid, These 10 States' Coronavirus Outbreaks Are Now "Critical," Experts Say.

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